Newfoundland and Labrador’s construction outlook sees a modest residential contraction more than offset by strong non-residential growth

OTTAWA, Ontario, July 20, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Construction activity in Newfoundland and Labrador contracted modestly in 2025 as growth in the province’s residential sector was more than offset by a contraction in non-residential construction. The outlook calls for these trends to reverse to 2035.

BuildForce Canada today released its Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward highlight reports for the residential and non-residential construction sectors in Newfoundland and Labrador for the period of 2026 to 2035. These reports were funded in part by the Government of Canada's Sectoral Workforce Solutions Program.

Although the outlook calls for a modest contraction in residential construction investment over the forecast period, that slowdown is projected to be more than offset by growth of nearly 25% in non-residential construction investment.

Demand for new housing construction in the province is expected to step down in the early years of the forecast, and from the elevated levels reported in 2025. This occurs as population growth eases. In the middle of the forecast, new housing construction is projected to return to growth, with activity increasing in the construction of both single-detached and multi-unit residential structures. Levels then slow into 2035. Meanwhile, residential renovation activity, which is the principal driver of overall residential investment in the province, is expected to generally rise across the decade.

By 2035, these factors are projected to combine to contract residential construction employment by 10% compared to 2025 levels, with the greatest loss experienced in the new-housing component.

Non-residential construction activity is forecast to rise to a peak in 2031, driven by engineering construction in the mining, utilities, and transportation sectors. Major projects such as the Bay du Nord offshore oil development project and the expansion of the Churchill Falls Generating Station are expected to elevate non-residential investment to a forecast peak in 2031. Investment in the construction of industrial, commercial, and institutional (ICI) buildings, meanwhile, is expected to see notable growth across the forecast period, with work either currently ongoing or planned to start on such key projects as the St. John’s Penitentiary, and the Canada Revenue Agency National Verification and Collection Centre.

By the end of the decade, non-residential construction employment is projected to rise by 15% compared with 2025 levels. The greatest growth is recorded in employment relating to ICI buildings, which is projected to add 27% over the forecast period.

“Although there is a risk that slowing population growth may lead to labour surpluses in the province’s residential construction sector, the outlook for non-residential construction activity in Newfoundland and Labrador calls for strong growth, particularly as work begins on several major projects,” says Irwin Bess, Executive Director of BuildForce Canada. “Additionally, we are tracking, but have not modeled, several additional proposed projects that may have further – and profound – implications on employment trends.”

Newfoundland and Labrador’s construction labour force outlook is heavily influenced by an aging demographic. By 2035, as many as 5,900 workers, or 30% of the 2025 labour force, are expected to exit the industry due to retirement. Combined with demands created by growth, the province could face a total hiring requirement of 5,700 workers.

Recruitment from among traditional sources will help to alleviate some of these hiring pressures. An estimated 4,100 first-time new entrants under the age of 30 are expected to join the sector from the local population. Even with these additions, however, the industry may face a hiring gap of 1,600 workers that will need to be recruited from outside the local construction labour force.

“While Newfoundland and Labrador’s work picture outlook is reasonably bright, we should move forward with cautious optimism as many of the projections rely on projects that have not yet been approved for final investment and are hinged to further opportunities that require energy transmission to initiate and launch new projects,” says Bob Fiander, Executive Director, Trades NL: Building Trades of Newfoundland & Labrador. “Our supply of highly skilled labour is prepared to address significant demand in the near-to-mid-term. We now find ourselves with an advantage having time to work with industry stakeholders to plan and prepare for future supply, training, retention, and growth for the construction and maintenance industries.”

“There is good reason to be optimistic about the long-term outlook for non-residential construction in Newfoundland and Labrador,” says Terry French, President of the Construction Labour Relations Association of Newfoundland and Labrador. While activity is slower in the short term, the potential for major projects on the horizon and a labour force ready to respond position the industry well for future growth.”

(Note that discrete analyses of the residential and non-residential labour force trends are available in their respective reports.)

New registrations in Newfoundland and Labrador’s largest construction trade programs have rebounded since the conclusion of the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2023, registrations increased by 25% on an annual basis, returning to levels not seen since 2016. Intake eased slightly in 2024 but remained elevated at close to 600 new registrants. Completions have been slower to recover, however, and remained below pre-pandemic levels in 2024.

Meanwhile, efforts are ongoing to enhance the recruitment of individuals from groups traditionally under-represented in the province’s construction labour force, such as women, Indigenous Peoples, and newcomers to Canada.

In 2025, there were approximately 2,290 women employed in Newfoundland and Labrador’s construction industry. Of them, 21% worked on site, directly on construction projects. However, as a share of the 15,600 tradespeople employed in Newfoundland and Labrador’s construction industry, women made up just 3% of the workforce in 2025.

The Indigenous population is the fastest-growing population in Canada and therefore presents recruitment opportunities. In 2025, Indigenous Peoples represented 8.4% of Newfoundland and Labrador’s construction labour force – slightly more than the 8.0% represented in the provincial labour force as a whole.

Over the past decade, the share of Indigenous Peoples in the province’s construction workforce has increased notably, rising to 8.4% in 2025 from 6.7% in 2016. As the Indigenous population continues to grow, the sector must continue to work with Indigenous communities to promote career opportunities to their youth and invest in initiatives that foster long-term retention and a welcoming workplace environment where they can build fulfilling careers.

The construction industry is also committed to the recruitment of newcomers to Canada. Based on historical settlement patterns and adjusted federal immigration targets, the province is expected to welcome nearly 51,200 new immigrants between 2026 and 2035, making these individuals, if successfully recruited, a key and growing part of the industry’s future labour force.

Increasing the participation rate of women, Indigenous Peoples, and new Canadians could help Newfoundland and Labrador’s construction industry address its future labour force needs.

BuildForce Canada is a national industry-led organization that represents all sectors of Canada’s construction industry. Its mandate is to support the labour market development needs of the construction and maintenance industry. As part of these activities, BuildForce works with key industry stakeholders, including contractors, proponents of construction, labour providers, governments, and training providers, to identify both demand and supply trends that will impact labour force capacity in the sector, and supports the career searches of job seekers wanting to work in the industry. BuildForce also leads programs and initiatives that support workforce upskilling, workforce productivity improvements, improvements to training modalities, human resource tools to support the adoption of industry best practices, as well as other value-added initiatives focused on supporting the industry’s labour force development needs. Visit www.buildforce.ca.

For further information, contact James Raiswell, Director of Communications, BuildForce Canada, at raiswell@buildforce.ca or 343-998-1674.

This report was produced with the support and input of a variety of provincial construction and maintenance industry stakeholders. For local industry reaction to this latest BuildForce Canada report, please contact:

Terry French
President
Construction Labour Relations Association – NL
709-753-5770

Bob Fiander
Executive Director
Trades NL: Building Trades of Newfoundland & Labrador
709-726-4560

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